Chaka cha 2025 chikuyembekezeka kukhala chofunikira kwambiri pagawo lazamphamvu padziko lonse lapansi ndi zachilengedwe. Mkangano womwe ukupitilira pakati pa Russia ndi Ukraine, kutha kwa nkhondo ku Gaza, komanso msonkhano womwe ukubwera wa COP30 ku Brazil - womwe udzakhala wofunikira kwambiri pazanyengo - zonse zikupanga mawonekedwe osatsimikizika. Pakadali pano, kuyambika kwa nthawi yachiwiri ya Trump, ndikusuntha koyambirira pankhondo ndi mitengo yamalonda, kwawonjezera magawo atsopano azovuta zadziko.
Pakati pazovuta izi, makampani opanga magetsi amakumana ndi zisankho zovuta pakugawika kwachuma pamafuta oyambira ndi kuyika ndalama zotsika mtengo. Kutsatira mbiri yophwanya mbiri ya M&A m'miyezi 18 yapitayi, kuphatikizana pakati pa zazikulu zamafuta kumakhalabe kolimba ndipo posachedwapa kutha kufalikira kumigodi. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, malo opangira deta ndi AI boom akuyendetsa kufunikira kwachangu kwa magetsi oyera usana ndi usiku, zomwe zimafuna chithandizo champhamvu cha ndondomeko.
Nazi njira zisanu zomwe zidzasinthe gawo lamagetsi mu 2025:
1. Geopolitics ndi Trade Policy Kukonzanso Misika
Mapulani atsopano a Trump akuwopseza kukula kwapadziko lonse lapansi, kumeta 50 maziko pakukula kwa GDP ndikutsitsa mpaka 3%. Izi zitha kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwamafuta padziko lonse lapansi ndi migolo 500,000 patsiku - pafupifupi theka la chaka. Pakadali pano, kuchoka kwa US ku Pangano la Paris kukusiya mwayi wochepa woti mayiko akweze zolinga zawo za NDC patsogolo pa COP30 kuti abwerere pa 2 ° C. Ngakhale Trump akuyika mtendere ku Ukraine ndi Middle East pamisonkhano, kusamvana kulikonse kumatha kukulitsa kupezeka kwa zinthu ndikuchepetsa mitengo.
2. Investment Ikukwera, koma Pang'onopang'ono
Ndalama zonse zamphamvu ndi zachilengedwe zikuyembekezeka kupitilira USD 1.5 thililiyoni mu 2025, kukwera 6% kuyambira 2024 - mbiri yatsopano, koma kukula kukucheperachepera theka la liwiro lomwe lidawonedwa koyambirira kwazaka khumi izi. Makampani akusamala kwambiri, kuwonetsa kusatsimikizika pa liwiro la kusintha kwa mphamvu. Ndalama zokhala ndi mpweya wochepa zidakwera kufika pa 50% ya ndalama zonse zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pofika 2021 koma zatsika. Kukwaniritsa zolinga za Paris kudzafunika chiwonjezeko china cha 60% pazachuma zotere pofika 2030.
3. Akuluakulu a Mafuta a ku Ulaya Akulemba Mayankho Awo
Monga zimphona zamafuta aku US zimagwiritsa ntchito ndalama zamphamvu kuti zipeze anthu odziyimira pawokha, maso onse ali pa Shell, BP ndi Equinor. Chofunika kwambiri pakali pano ndikulimba mtima pazachuma - kukhathamiritsa ma portfolio pochotsa zinthu zomwe sizili zofunika kwambiri, kuwongolera mtengo wake, ndikukula kwandalama zaulere kuti zithandizire kubweza kwa eni ake. Komabe, mitengo yofooka yamafuta ndi gasi ikhoza kuyambitsa mgwirizano wosinthika ndi akuluakulu aku Europe pambuyo pake mu 2025.
4. Mafuta, Gasi ndi Zitsulo Zakhazikitsidwa pa Mitengo Yosakhazikika
OPEC+ ikukumana ndi chaka china chovuta kuyesa kusunga Brent pamwamba pa USD 80/bbl kwa chaka chachinayi chotsatira. Pokhala ndi mphamvu zopanda mphamvu za OPEC, tikuyembekeza kuti Brent ikhale pafupifupi USD 70-75/bbl mu 2025. Misika yamafuta ikhoza kulimba kwambiri mphamvu yatsopano ya LNG isanafike mu 2026, kuyendetsa mitengo yokwera komanso yosasunthika. Mitengo yamkuwa inayamba 2025 pa USD 4.15/lb, kutsika kuchokera pa nsonga za 2024, koma ikuyembekezeka kubwezanso kufika pa USD 4.50/lb chifukwa cha kufunikira kwamphamvu kwa US ndi China kuposa migodi yatsopano.
5. Mphamvu & Zowonjezereka: Chaka Chakupititsa patsogolo Zatsopano
Kuloleza pang'onopang'ono ndi kulumikizana kwanthawi yayitali kwachepetsa kukula kwa mphamvu zongowonjezedwanso. Zizindikiro zikuwonekera kuti 2025 ikhoza kukhala chizindikiro cha kusintha. Kusintha kwa Germany kwakweza kuvomereza kwa mphepo yamkuntho ndi 150% kuyambira 2022, pomwe kusintha kwa US FERC kukuyamba kufupikitsa nthawi yolumikizirana - ma ISO ena akutulutsa makina oti achepetse maphunziro kuchokera zaka mpaka miyezi. Kukula kofulumira kwa malo opangira data kukukakamizanso maboma, makamaka ku US, kuti aziyika magetsi patsogolo. Pakapita nthawi, izi zitha kukhwimitsa misika yamafuta ndikukweza mitengo yamagetsi, kukhala chiwopsezo chandale ngati mitengo yamafuta chisanachitike zisankho za chaka chatha.
Pamene mawonekedwe akupitilirabe kusinthika, osewera amphamvu adzafunika kuyang'ana mwayi ndi zoopsazi mwanzeru kuti ateteze tsogolo lawo munthawi yodziwika bwinoyi.
Nthawi yotumiza: Jul-04-2025
