Gore ra2025 rakaiswa kuti rive rakakosha kune yepasi rose simba uye zviwanikwa zviwanikwa chikamu. Kunetsana kuri kuitika kweRussia neUkraine, kumisa pfuti muGaza, uye musangano unotevera weCOP30 muBrazil - uyo uchave wakakoshera mutemo wemamiriro ekunze - zvese zviri kuumba mamiriro asina chokwadi. Zvichakadaro, kutanga kwetemu yechipiri yaTrump, nekufamba kwekutanga kuhondo nekutengesa mutero, kwawedzera mitsara mitsva yekunetsana kwezvematongerwo enyika.
Pakati pemamiriro ezvinhu akaomarara, makambani emagetsi anotarisana nesarudzo dzakaoma pakugovewa kwemari pamafuta efossil uye kudyara kwakaderera kabhoni. Kutevera rekodhi-kutyora chiitiko cheM&A mukati memwedzi gumi nemisere yapfuura, kubatanidzwa pakati pemafuta makuru kunoramba kwakasimba uye kunogona kupararira kumugodhi munguva pfupi. Panguva imwecheteyo, nzvimbo yedata uye AI boom iri kutyaira nekukurumidza kudiwa kwemagetsi akachena kutenderera-wachi, inoda rutsigiro rwakasimba.
Heano maitiro mashanu akakosha anozogadzira chikamu chesimba muna 2025:
1. Geopolitics uye Trade Policies Reshaping Markets
Zvirongwa zvitsva zvemitero zvaTrump zvinoisa kutyisidzira kukuru mukukura kwepasirese, zvichigona kuveura makumi mashanu mapoinzi kubva pakuwedzera kweGDP nekudzikisira kusvika pa3%. Izvi zvinogona kuderedza kudiwa kwemafuta epasi rose nemadhiramu mazana mashanu ezviuru pazuva - ingangoita hafu yegore. Zvichakadaro, kubuda kweUS muchibvumirano cheParis kunosiya mukana mudiki wekuti nyika dzisimudze zvinangwa zvadzo zveNDC pamberi peCOP30 kuti dzidzokere mugwara re2°C. Kunyangwe sezvo VaTrump vachiisa runyararo rweUkraine neMiddle East pachirongwa, chero sarudzo inogona kuwedzera kupihwa kwezvinhu uye kuderedza mitengo.
2. Investment Rising, but at a Slower Pace
Yakazara simba uye zviwanikwa zvekudyara mari inotarisirwa kudarika USD 1.5 tiririyoni muna 2025, kukwira 6% kubva 2024 - rekodhi nyowani, asi nekukura kunonoka kusvika hafu yenhanho yakaonekwa pakutanga kwemakore gumi ano. Makambani ari kushandisa kungwarira kukuru, achiratidza kusava nechokwadi pamusoro pekumhanya kwekuchinja kwesimba. Kudyara kwakaderera-kabhoni kwakakwira kusvika pamakumi mashanu muzana ezvese kushandiswa kwesimba panosvika 2021 asi kubvira kwawedzera. Kuzadzikisa zvinangwa zveParis kunoda imwezve 60% kuwedzera kwekudyara kwakadaro panosvika 2030.
3. European Oil Majors Chati Mhinduro Yavo
Sezvo hofori dzemafuta eUS dzinoshandisa masheya akasimba kuwana vakazvimirira vega, maziso ese ari paShell, BP uye Equinor. Chavanokoshesa pari zvino kusimba kwemari - kugadzirisa mapotifoliyo nekubvisa zvinhu zvisiri-musimboti, kuvandudza mutengo wakanaka, uye kukura kwemahara kuyerera kwemari kutsigira kudzoka kwevagovani. Zvakadaro, mitengo isina kusimba yemafuta uye gasi inogona kumutsa chibvumirano cheshanduko nevakuru vekuEurope gare gare muna 2025.
4. Mafuta, Gasi neMasimbi Akagadzirirwa Mitengo Inoshanduka
OPEC+ yakatarisana nerimwe gore rakaoma kuyedza kuchengetedza Brent pamusoro peUSD 80/bbl kwegore rechina rakateedzana. Nekupa kwakasimba kusiri kweOPEC, tinotarisira kuti Brent iite avhareji yeUSD 70-75/bbl muna 2025. Misika yegesi inogona kusimba mberi huwandu hutsva hweLNG husati hwasvika muna 2026, ichityaira mitengo yakakwira uye ichinyanya kushanduka. Mitengo yemhangura yakatanga 2025 paUSD 4.15/lb, zvichidzika kubva panhongonya dza2024, asi inotarisirwa kudzoka kusvika paavhareji USD 4.50/lb nekuda kwekuda kwakasimba kweUS neChina kudarika migodhi mitsva.
5. Simba & Renewables: Gore reAccelerating Innovation
Kunonoka kubvumidza uye kubatanidza kwave kwenguva yakareba kudzvanya renewable simba kukura. Zviratidzo zviri kubuda kuti 2025 inogona kuratidza shanduko. Shanduko dzeGermany dzakasimudza mvumo yemhepo yepamhenderekedzo yegungwa ne150% kubva 2022, ukuwo US FERC shanduko dziri kutanga kupfupisa nguva yekubatanidza - nemamwe maISO achiburitsa otomatiki kucheka zvidzidzo kubva kumakore kuenda kumwedzi. Rapid data center kuwedzera kuri kusundidzirawo hurumende, kunyanya muUS, kukoshesa kupihwa kwemagetsi. Nekufamba kwenguva, izvi zvinogona kuomesa misika yegasi uye kukwidza mitengo yemagetsi, zvoita zvematongerwo enyika zvakada kufanana nemitengo yepeturu pamberi pesarudzo dzegore rapfuura.
Sezvo mamiriro arikuenderera mberi nekushanduka, vatambi vesimba vachada kufambisa iyi mikana nenjodzi nekugona kuchengetedza ramangwana ravo munguva ino inotsanangura.
Nguva yekutumira: Jul-04-2025
