Unyaka ka-2025 umiselwe ukuba ube ngobalulekileyo kwicandelo lehlabathi lamandla kunye nemithombo yendalo. Ingxabano eqhubekayo yaseRussia-Ukraine, ukupheliswa kwemfazwe eGaza, kunye nengqungquthela ezayo ye-COP30 eBrazil - eya kuba yinto ebalulekileyo kumgaqo-nkqubo wemozulu - zonke zibumba indawo engaqinisekanga. Ngeli xesha, ukuqala kwekota yesibini kaTrump, kunye neentshukumo zakwangoko kwimfazwe kunye neerhafu zorhwebo, yongeze imigangatho emitsha yoxinzelelo lwe-geopolitical.
Phakathi kobu bume obuntsonkothileyo, iinkampani zamandla zijongene nezigqibo ezinzima malunga nolwabiwo lwenkunzi kuwo wonke amafutha efosili kunye notyalo-mali olunekhabhoni ephantsi. Ukulandela umsebenzi we-M&A wophula irekhodi kwiinyanga ezili-18 ezidlulileyo, ukudityaniswa phakathi kwezikhulu zeoyile kuhlala kuqinile kwaye kunokusasazeka ngokukhawuleza kwimigodi. Ngexesha elifanayo, iziko ledatha kunye ne-AI boom liqhuba imfuno ephuthumayo yombane ococekileyo ubusuku nemini, efuna inkxaso yomgaqo-nkqubo oqinileyo.
Nazi iindlela ezintlanu eziphambili eziza kubumba icandelo lezamandla ngo-2025:
1. I-Geopolitics kunye neMigaqo-nkqubo yoRhwebo yokuBumba ngokutsha iiMarike
Izicwangciso ezintsha zerhafu zikaTrump zibeka isoyikiso esikhulu kuhlumo lwehlabathi, okunokuthi kuchetywe amanqaku asisiseko angama-50 ekwandiseni i-GDP kwaye kuyihlise ukuya kwi-3%. Oku kunganciphisa imfuno yeoli yehlabathi ngama-500,000 eebhareli ngosuku - malunga nesiqingatha sonyaka sokukhula. Ngeli xesha, ukurhoxa kwe-US kwiSivumelwano saseParis kushiya amathuba amancinane amazwe aphakamisa iithagethi zawo ze-NDC ngaphambi kwe-COP30 ukuze abuyele kumzila we-2°C. Kanye njengokuba uTrump ebeka uxolo lwe-Ukraine kunye noMbindi Mpuma kwi-ajenda, nasiphi na isisombululo sinokunyusa unikezelo lwempahla kunye nokucinezela amaxabiso.
2. Ukunyuka koTyalo-mali, kodwa ngesantya esiphantsi
Utyalo-mali olupheleleyo lwamandla kunye nemithombo yendalo kulindeleke ukuba ludlule i-USD 1.5 yezigidigidi kwi-2025, i-6% ukusuka kwi-2024 - irekhodi elitsha, kodwa ngokukhula okucothayo ukuya kwisiqingatha sesantya esibonwe ekuqaleni kweli shumi leminyaka. Iinkampani zisebenzisa ngononophelo olukhulu, zibonisa ukungaqiniseki ngesantya sotshintsho lwamandla. Utyalo-mali olunekhabhoni ephantsi lunyuke lwaya kuthi ga kwi-50% yenkcitho yamandla iyonke ngo-2021 kodwa sele ihambile. Ukufikelela usukelo lwaseParis kuya kufuna ukwanda okungaphezulu kwama-60% kutyalo-mali olunjalo ngowama-2030.
3. Abaphathi beOli baseYurophu baTshati impendulo yabo
Njengoko ii-oil giants zase-US zisebenzisa i-equities ezinamandla ukufumana abazimeleyo basekhaya, onke amehlo akwi-Shell, i-BP kunye ne-Equinor. Eyona nto iphambili kubo ngoku kukukwazi ukomelela kwezemali - ukukhulisa iiphothifoliyo ngokuncama izinto ezingezona zingundoqo, ukuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kweendleko, kunye nokukhulisa ukuhamba kwemali simahla ukuxhasa imbuyekezo yabanini zabelo. Nangona kunjalo, amaxabiso e-oyile kunye negesi abuthathaka anokubangela isivumelwano soguqulo ngabaphathi baseYurophu kamva ngo-2025.
4. I-oyile, igesi kunye neentsimbi ezimiselwe amaxabiso aguquguqukayo
I-OPEC + ijongene nomnye unyaka onzima uzama ukugcina i-Brent ingaphezulu kwe-USD 80 / bbl unyaka wesine ngokulandelelana. Ngonikezelo olomeleleyo lwe-non-OPEC, silindele ukuba i-Brent ibe ngumyinge we-USD 70-75/bbl ngo-2025. Iimarike zegesi zinokuqina ngakumbi ngaphambi kokuba umthamo omtsha we-LNG ufike ngo-2026, uqhuba amaxabiso aphezulu kwaye aguquguqukayo. Amaxabiso eCopper aqala i-2025 kwi-USD 4.15 / lb, ehla ukusuka kwi-2024 iincopho, kodwa kulindeleke ukuba abuyele kwi-avareji ye-USD 4.50 / lb ngenxa yemfuno eqinile yase-US kunye ne-China ekhupha ukunikezelwa kwemigodi emitsha.
5. Amandla kunye nezinto eziHlaziywayo: Unyaka wokuKhawulezisa uTshintsho
Ukuvumela okucothayo kunye noqhakamshelwano olude luthintele ukukhula kwamandla ahlaziyekayo. Iimpawu ziyavela ukuba i-2025 inokuphawula ukuguquka. Uhlaziyo lwaseJamani luphakamise ukuvunywa komoya elunxwemeni nge-150% ukusukela ngo-2022, ngelixa uhlaziyo lwe-US FERC luqala ukwenza mfutshane amaxesha onxibelelwano - ezinye ii-ISO zikhupha i-automation ukusika izifundo ukusuka kwiminyaka ukuya kwiinyanga. Ukwandiswa kwedatha ekhawulezileyo kukwatyhala oorhulumente, ngakumbi e-US, ukuba babeke phambili unikezelo lombane. Ngokuhamba kwexesha, oku kungaqinisa urhwebo lwerhasi kwaye kunyuse amaxabiso ombane, kube ngumbono wezopolitiko okufana namaxabiso epetroli phambi konyulo lonyaka ophelileyo.
Njengoko imbonakalo yomhlaba iqhubeka nokuvela, abadlali bamandla kuya kufuneka bajonge la mathuba kunye nomngcipheko ngobuchule bokukhusela ikamva labo ngeli xesha lichazayo.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jul-04-2025
