Unyaka wezi-2025 umiselwe ukuthi ube semqoka emkhakheni wamandla omhlaba kanye nemithombo yemvelo. Ingxabano eqhubekayo phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, ukumiswa kwezikhali eGaza, kanye nengqungquthela ezayo ye-COP30 eBrazil - ezobaluleka ngenqubomgomo yesimo sezulu - konke kwakha isimo esingaqinisekile. Khonamanjalo, ukuqala kwehlandla lesibili likaTrump, nokuhamba kwangaphambi kwesikhathi ngezindleko zempi nezohwebo, kwengeze izingqimba ezintsha zokungezwani kwezwe.
Ngalesi simo sangemuva esiyinkimbinkimbi, izinkampani zamandla zibhekene nezinqumo ezinzima mayelana nokwabiwa kwezimali kuzo zonke izibaseli ezimbiwa phansi kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kwekhabhoni ephansi. Ukulandela umsebenzi we-M&A owephula irekhodi ezinyangeni eziyi-18 ezedlule, ukuhlanganiswa phakathi kwezikhulu zikawoyela kusalokhu kuqinile futhi kungasakazekela ezimayini maduze. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, isikhungo sedatha kanye ne-AI boom kuqhuba isidingo esiphuthumayo sikagesi ohlanzekile ubusuku nemini, okudinga ukusekelwa kwenqubomgomo okuqinile.
Nawa amathrendi amahlanu abalulekile azobumba umkhakha wezamandla ngo-2025:
1. Izinqubomgomo Zezwe Nezohwebo Zilungisa Kabusha Izimakethe
Izinhlelo ezintsha zentela zikaTrump zibeka engcupheni enkulu ekukhuleni komhlaba wonke, okungenzeka ukuthi ziphuce amaphuzu angu-50 ekwandiseni i-GDP futhi kwehliselwe cishe ku-3%. Lokhu kunganciphisa isidingo sikawoyela emhlabeni wonke ngemiphongolo engu-500,000 ngosuku - cishe ukukhula okuyingxenye yonyaka. Khonamanjalo, ukuhoxa kwe-US esivumelwaneni saseParis kushiya emancane amathuba okuthi amazwe akhuphule imigomo yawo ye-NDC ngaphambi kwe-COP30 ukuze abuyele esimeni sika-2°C. Njengoba uTrump ebeka ukuthula kwe-Ukraine ne-Middle East phezulu ku-ajenda, noma yisiphi isinqumo singase sinyuse ukuhlinzekwa kwempahla futhi sicindezele amanani.
2. Ukutshalwa Kwezimali Ukunyuka, kodwa Ngejubane Elincane
Utshalomali oluphelele lwamandla nezinsiza zemvelo kulindeleke ukuba ludlule i-USD 1.5 trillion ngo-2025, lukhuphuke ngo-6% kusukela ngo-2024 - irekhodi elisha, kodwa ukukhula okuhamba kancane kuya kuhhafu wejubane elibonwe ekuqaleni kwaleli shumi leminyaka. Izinkampani zisebenzisa ukuqapha okukhulu, okubonisa ukungaqiniseki ngesivinini sokushintsha kwamandla. Ukutshalwa kwezimali kwekhabhoni ephansi kukhuphuke kwafinyelela ku-50% wengqikithi yokusebenzisa amandla ngo-2021 kodwa selokhu kwathi nhlo. Ukuzuza okuhlosiwe kwe-Paris kuzodinga ukukhushulwa okwengeziwe ngama-60% kuleyo mali ngo-2030.
3. I-European Oil Majors Ishadi Impendulo Yabo
Njengoba iziqhwaga zikawoyela zase-US zisebenzisa izabelo eziqinile ukuze zithole abantu abazimele, wonke amehlo akuShell, BP kanye ne-Equinor. Okuhamba phambili kwabo kwamanje ukusimama kwezezimali - ukwenza kahle amaphothifoliyo ngokukhipha izimpahla ezingezona ezibalulekile, ukuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kwezindleko, nokukhulisa ukuhamba kwemali kwamahhala ukuze kusekelwe izimbuyiselo zabanikazi bamasheya. Noma kunjalo, amanani abuthakathaka kawoyela negesi angase avuse isivumelwano soguquko ngabakhulu base-Europe ngokuhamba kwesikhathi ngo-2025.
4. Uwoyela, Igesi Nezinsimbi Ezisethelwe Amanani Aguquguqukayo
I-OPEC+ ibhekene nomunye unyaka oyinselele ezama ukugcina i-Brent ingaphezu kuka-USD 80/bbl unyaka wesine ulandelana. Ngokuhlinzekwa okuqinile okungeyona i-OPEC, silindele ukuthi i-Brent ibe nesilinganiso esingu-USD 70-75/bbl ngo-2025. Izimakethe zegesi zingaqina kakhulu ngaphambi kokuba umthamo omusha we-LNG ufike ngo-2026, uqhubekisele phambili amanani aphezulu futhi aguquguquke nakakhulu. Izintengo zethusi ziqale ngo-2025 ngo-USD 4.15/lb, zehle zisuka eziqongweni eziphakeme zango-2024, kodwa kulindeleke ukuthi ziphinde zibuyele ku-USD 4.50/lb ezimaphakathi ngenxa yesidingo esiqinile sase-US ne-China esidlula ukunikezwa kwezimayini ezintsha.
5. Amandla & Okuvuselelekayo: Unyaka Wokusheshisa Ukuqamba Okusha
Ukuvumela okunensayo nokuxhumana kubambezele isikhathi eside ukukhula kwamandla avuselelekayo. Izimpawu ziyavela zokuthi u-2025 ungaphawula inguquko. Izinguquko zaseJalimane zikhuphule ukugunyazwa komoya osogwini ngo-150% kusukela ngo-2022, kuyilapho izinguquko ze-US FERC seziqala ukufinyeza imigqa yesikhathi yokuxhumana - namanye ama-ISO ekhipha okuzenzakalelayo ukuze anciphise izifundo kusukela eminyakeni kuya ezinyangeni. Ukunwetshwa kwesikhungo sedatha ngokushesha kuphusha ohulumeni, ikakhulukazi e-US, ukuthi babeke phambili ukuhlinzekwa kukagesi. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lokhu kungase kuqinise izimakethe zegesi futhi kukhuphule amanani kagesi, kube isizinda sezombusazwe esifana nentengo kaphethiloli ngaphambi kokhetho lwangonyaka odlule.
Njengoba isimo sezwe siqhubeka nokuvela, abadlali bamandla bazodinga ukuzulazula kulawa mathuba nezingozi ngobuchule ukuze bavikele ikusasa labo kulesi sikhathi esichazayo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-04-2025
